CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-04-22T05:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-04-22T05:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16772/-1
CME Note: Associated with an eruption visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 171/193 beginning 2021-04-22T04:21Z, and associated with C3.8 flare beginning at 2021-04-22T04:10 and peaking at 2021-04-22T04:35Z. There is some northeastern deflection apparent in the available EUV imagery. Arrival signaled by sudden rise in Btotal from 5 to 8 nT at 2021-04-2422:24Z, followed shortly by an increase in Btotal to above 10 nT, accompanied by jumps in velocity, density, and temperature as measured by DSCOVR.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-24T22:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-04-25T23:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center Sent: Friday, April 23, 2021 2:59 AM To: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert. expected arrival time: 2021-04-25T23:30:00 time_uncertainty: 12 min_estimated_peak_K: 3 max_estimated_peak_K: 5 probability_of_arrival: 80Lead Time: 39.42 hour(s)
Difference: -25.10 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2021-04-23T06:59Z
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